The spring pump in wholesale used-vehicle prices has faded, and the numbers finally tipped the other way. For the first time in 2026, auction values are sitting below where they stood a year ago, and the shift says a lot about where the fall market is heading.
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 1% from August to 206.2 in the first 15 days of September, landing 0.4% below September 2025.
- Compact cars and electric vehicles were the only major segments still holding above year-ago values.
- Wholesale supply climbed to 27.8 days while sales conversion slipped to 55.8%, both pointing to cooler demand.
Wholesale values give back the spring bounce
Cox Automotive reports that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped 1% from August, settling at 206.2 during the first half of September. That reading, which adjusts for mix, mileage, and seasonality, now sits 0.4% under where it was in September 2025. It marks the first month this year that wholesale prices have fallen behind last year’s pace.
Look at the raw, unadjusted numbers and the cooling shows up too. Prices slid 1.1% from August in the first half of the month, steeper than the 0.3% dip a typical September brings. They also came in 1.1% below a year ago. Earlier in 2026 the market ran hot, with the index reaching 215.3 in March and climbing 6.2% year over year on the back of the spring tax-refund season. That extra momentum has now washed out.
Jonathan Gregory, a senior director at Cox Automotive, framed the move as the market fully handing back its spring gains and settling just under last year’s level. Manheim Market Report prices for the three-year-old index fell 0.8% since the start of September, a sharper drop than the same stretch in 2025 and a bit above the long-term depreciation average.
Why compact cars and EVs held up
Not every corner of the market softened. Compact cars and electric vehicles were the only major segments still carrying values above year-ago levels in mid-September. Rising fuel costs are a big reason. Gas prices kept climbing after a record-setting Labor Day, pushed higher by renewed unrest in the Middle East, and that tends to steer shoppers toward smaller, thriftier vehicles.
The EV Index told an interesting story, up 2.3% year over year even as it slipped 1.3% from August. Used EV values are still drifting down from an elevated spring baseline as more of them reach the market, but they held their footing better than most. The non-EV index, by contrast, fell 1.3% from a year ago and 1.4% from August. Midsize cars, pickups, and SUVs all posted annual declines that more than canceled out the gains from the fuel-friendly segments.
Supply climbs as demand cools
The supply and demand picture explains a good chunk of the price move. Wholesale supply reached 27.8 days as of September 15, roughly 2.4 days more than a year ago. At the end of August it stood at 27.2 days. More vehicles moving through the pipeline gives buyers more room to be picky.
Demand, meanwhile, eased. Sales conversion averaged 55.8% in the first half of September, down 1.4 points from a year ago and 0.7 points from August. Adding to the pressure, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. Cox Automotive flags that move as another drag on demand, since higher borrowing costs and tighter household budgets tend to cool buying appetite.
If you’re weighing used cars this fall, softer wholesale numbers are worth watching, but they don’t guarantee lower window stickers, since retail pricing tends to follow auction trends slowly and unevenly. It’s a signal to compare patiently rather than a promise of instant markdowns.
What the numbers mean heading into the fall
The bigger takeaway is that the market has cooled back to earth after an unusually strong first half. Wholesale prices dipping under last year does not signal a crash, especially with retention still firm and compact and electric segments defying the trend. It does suggest a slower, more buyer-friendly stretch ahead if supply keeps building and rates stay elevated. Watch fuel prices and the Fed, because both are steering this market more than any single vehicle segment right now.
