The Hagerty Market Rating for the classic car market dropped recently, once again showing that it’s on a cooling trend overall. This is the first time in over 14 years that it’s remained below 60 for two months in a row. Before 2012, it was fairly common to have a market rating below 60.
Analyzing the Hagerty Market Index
The current index value of 173.46 is still pretty high compared to anything before 2015, but it has been dropping for 29 of the last 31 months since peaking in late 2022. Overall, it’s fallen 16% since that point. However, there are some bright spots. The private side of the market is where used cars trade hands outside of auctions, and it’s doing well. These are usually done at higher prices as well.
The average sales price of these transactions is at its highest point in over three years. In fact, if you adjust it for inflation, it’s still higher than anything in the last two years. The number of cars selling over their insured value has been going down as the market cools. It’s gone down for the last 34 of 35 months to a value of 37%. That’s the lowest point since early 2022.
Public Auction Car Sales Rising
In the world of public auctions, the number of cars sold continues to go up even as the average prices go down. The current average sale price is only $27,038, which is the lowest since May 2020, when most live auctions were canceled. If you adjust for inflation, it’s the lowest price since 2011. This has a lot to do with auctions purposely listing low-value cars to keep their volume high.
According to industry experts, optimism for this market is fairly low. The decline in the US dollar vs other currencies may play a part as well. The Monterey auctions in California next month should give some indication of whether this is true. Many European cars are headed for these auctions, and a weak dollar won’t help their sale prices.
At the same time, the economy overall is in a state of flux and uncertainty. According to auction experts, Americans aren’t keen to spend a lot of extra money on non-essential things right now.
Value Changes in the Hagerty Price Guide
In the new edition of the Hagerty Price Guide, which shows the real value changes of 40,000 vehicles, the Hagerty Hundred increased in value overall. It’s the first increase in six years and the second biggest increase in over two years. However, on average, values are down. The values of Average to Median condition vehicles have either gone down or aren’t outpacing inflation.
The Blue Chip Index compiles the value of 25 seven-figure cars, and it dropped by the most significant amount in nine months. This is the market segment showcased at Monterey, so that should show where the heat index is. However, anything that happens in that auction won’t hit the Market Ratings until September.
